The Ukrainian Enigma (First Look)

      

      I am old enough to understand what the Cold War felt like.  The constant buzz of nuclear holocaust and being tormented by images of the same in the movie “The Day After”.  It seemed like every bad guy in every movie (Stripes, Spies Like Us, Rocky IV, every James Bond movie, etc.), drama or comedy, was a Soviet soldier, KGB agent, or East German spy. They could be formidable enemies or clownish imbeciles, but they always lost to the American good guy.  I was graduating from Westfield State (back then) College when Communist Russia fell. The Berlin Wall was torn down, and Roger Waters celebrated with a star-studded concert in Berlin of Pink Floyd’s, aptly named, “The Wall”.  By my first year of teaching in 1991,  Soviet satellite nations started to break away from Russia.  Ukraine was one of them.  Who knew it would lead to the events of 2022?

      There’s quite a bit to unpack with the latest events in Ukraine, and it would appear that their president, Vladimir Putin, is going against his MO and telegraphing his true feelings.  I’d be the first to admit that I viewed Putin as a leader who was playing a shrewd game of poker, daring all other countries to call his bluff so he could lay down his cards.  But, if the latest reports on him have any validity, he is increasingly isolated from almost everyone, has eschewed the use of electronic devices (that could possibly track him), and his paranoia is getting the better of him.  Joseph Stalin may have been the most paranoid world leader in history,and I know that Putin is no Stalin. But, in both cases, actions speak volumes.  

      Putin has always had a sore soft spot for the old Soviet Union, calling it’s break up “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the century.”  I felt the same way about Van Halen for an embarrassing number of years, but…you know… I got over it.  He clearly didn’t, and that kind of grudge festering in a one track mind over years and years has become dangerous. But, the stranger part is that he appears to be acting like we’re back in the 1940’s, when the direct invasion of a sovereign nation using land troops seemed more plausible. I couldn’t quite understand how someone whom I had considered very calculating would, in the era of drones, internet, and artificial intelligence, use what appears to be young, naive soldiers and tanks to invade a former ally.  

      Clearly this was a long term goal of Putin’s, and not a knee jerk reaction.  In some warped way I can understand his concern of having NATO accept Ukraine into its fold.  We would have major concerns if a Russia backed alliance was courting Mexico and Canada.  But Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and we have promised to support nations like it in defense of democracy.  Putin has been oozing into Ukraine for years, having annexed Crimea as far back as 2014, and supporting Russian speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine ever since.   But the steps he has taken starting in February of 2022 has done little more than turn most of the world against him.  Like an old man who pines for the old ways so badly that he alienates all of those around him, Putin seems hell bent on resurrecting the corpse of the Soviet Union, even if he needs to burn down the house to get it.

      Thankfully, NATO and other nations around the globe are reading the room and acting accordingly.  The rumored economic sanctions being thrown around are no joke.  I know it’s not sexy, and in the long run may not save Ukraine from being taken over, but it seems like a long term solution that could keep Russia at bay with a decreased body count.  No one was stoked about Al Capone being convicted for tax fraud, but it did send the man to Alcatraz and was basically a death sentence. The global show of force (which includes China’s abstention on a UN vote condemning Russia’s invasion, instead of voting against it), and the supplying of Ukraine with stinger missiles and other war necessities, like a modern day Berlin airlift, is inspiring.  The last time I felt such a widely unified vibe was after 9/11.

       I’ve also been impressed with U.S. intelligence. It seemed like we were able to call each of Putin’s plays right before he actually did any of them.  Whether it was making false statements, creating false flag scenarios (like the Nazis burning the Reichstag building and then blaming the communists), or the actual invasion, our government was able to tell the world it was coming, almost daring Putin to carry it out.

       None of this is to imply that we are looking at a best case scenario, and Ukraine is looking more and more like it is going to fight a long and bloody war only to be occupied.  But the West really can’t react to Putin in kind.  Sending troops into Ukraine means American lives lost, right on the tail of leaving Afghanistan.   Setting up a no fly zone means planes being shot down. These open up paths of finger pointing that could lead to nuclear weapon use, and, let’s be honest, Putin seems more and more like he could.  Keep in mind that this is a scenario where a nuclear weapon does not have to be launched in the air.  Russia could load it on a truck, drive it across the border, and detonate it right outside of Kyiv.  There wouldn’t be an air track to follow or respond to.  Just a mushroom cloud of uncertainty.

       We would also have a difficult time justifying going in on humanitarian grounds.  The Ukrainians are suffering for sure.  But, there have been reports, pictures, and video of worse suffering in places like Syria, Yemen, Haiti, Sudan, and many others for decades, without this kind of response.  No, this is a political matter involving allies that are very necessary to the health and safety of the United States.  So, politically, it makes sense to put troops in surrounding NATO countries in Poland, and dare Putin to go further.  Pile on economic sanctions, cyber attacks, and the apparent resistance from Russian civilians themselves, and Putin may have found he vastly overestimated his hand.  There are also rumblings, now, of Sweden and Finland wanting to join NATO.  If Putin was worried about having a NATO linked Ukraine, he’ll really love Sweden and Finland joining.

       There is also a bit of a wild card that is gnawing at me, and that is Edward Snowden.  At the risk of ringing the conspiracy bell and losing credibility, I would like to have some more assurances about him.  The former NSA employee seems to have a good deal of US intelligence, and applied for and received Russian citizenship in 2020.  He was freaked out enough by information he had about us that he was willing to seek asylum with our enemy.  Does Putin have that info now?

       I don’t see how this ends.  I’m not sure anyone does.  I’m concerned that Putin has no way to stop this in a way that saves him face, and there doesn’t seem to be any possibility he would. But, he has also painted himself into a corner, invading a country that he doesn’t have the forces to successfully occupy.  He has also inspired an anti-Russian insurgency that will fight to the last person.  Helping the Ukrainians help themselves is a smart play by NATO, but Putin is looking more and more desperate, and desperate people do desperate things.  Here’s to hoping that a path opens up soon that allows a de-escalation, for the good of everyone.